As everyone in SAFL knows, a team is ranked in the Power Rankings based on their “Power Score”. The Power Score tries to measure the quality of a team based on their offensive rank, defensive rank, run differential, wins and losses. It is a cold-blooded and calculated way to measure quality. Heart and guts, intangibles, moxy means nothing here. Read below as we assess each team by the numbers…
COMMENTS
AK SANTAALI
AK, despite one loss is qualitatively the best team in the league. They have by far the best defense. They are tied for the best offense. They are winning games by an absurd 31+ ppg. They have actually under performed they win expectancy (based on their run differential) by 0.65 wins. Our model says AK should be undefeated and rightfully the overwhelming favorites to win the title. Our model gives them a more than 2 in 5 chance to win it all.
SAVAGES
The Savages are the lone undefeated team in the league. But that doesn’t mean that they’re the best. They have a very good offense pouring in over 41ppg. While they have the #3 scoring defense, they are closer to the mediocre Browns D than they are to the top AK scoring D. The Savages are by far the luckiest team in the league outperforming their win expectancy by a whopping 1.61 games. Luck has been a big factor in their wins. They have about a 1 in 5 chance to win it all.
BROWNS
The defending two time, two time champs have the #1 scoring O. And the #5 scoring D. The Browns have outperformed their win expectancy by about 0.50 wins which suggests that they have been somewhat lucky. They could win it all or go home earlier than expected. High powered offenses can freeze up in the cold and volatile defenses can rear its ugly head at the wrong time. Nevertheless, our model give the Browns a 1 in 6 chance to win it all.
GATORS
The Gators are the last of 4 high scoring offenses coming is at 40+ ppg. They have the second best scoring D, but its closer to #3 Savages than they are to the #1 AK. The Gators are the second unluckiest team so far this season under-performing their win expectancy by 0.81 wins. The Gators can either lock you down and roll you over or lose a nail bitter as they have twice this season. Our model gives them a 1 in 9 chance to win the trophy.
UNDERDOGS
The Underdogs have outscored their opponents by a grand total of 4 points in the aggregate this year. This is the performance of a .500 team. They check in at #5 on scoring offense and #4 on scoring defense. They have outperformed their win expectancy by 0.42 wins. They are trending up after a rough start. There is no way to predict this team. They could be world beaters or they could beat down. They have about a 1 in 20 chance to win.
ELITES
The Elites have the #6 scoring offense, but it’s a lot closer to #7 than they are to #5. Their scoring D is also #6, but much closer to #5 than #7. The Elites are being outscored by over 10 ppg. That’s not a good margin but they have outperformed their expectancy by 0.30. They is some fulkiness to their two wins. The Elites could either surprise or fold quickly. Our models gives them a 1 in 50 odds to win it all.
COBRA KAI
Cobra Kai ranks 7th is scoring offense and dead last in scoring defense. They have been outscored by 134 points for the season. That’s not very good. They have outperformed their win expectancy by 0.14. But they have made dramatic improvements each week. They could be a match-UP problem for some teams. Our model gives them a less than 1 in 100 chance to win it all.
THUNDER
The Thunder are dead last in scoring offense. They have the #7 scoring defense. They have outperformed heir win expectancy by about 0.45 wins. They have progressively gotten worse as the season continues. The Thunder could make noise in the playoffs, but our model doesn’t think so giving them about a 1 in 500 chance to win it all.
BANDITS
The Bandits are #8 in scoring offense and #8 in scoring defense. They have played pretty rough schedule so far. They are the unluckiest team in the league under-performing their win expectancy by 0.89 wins. They could’ve won some games but so far they have a doughnut in the win column to show for their efforts. Our model gives them a Jim Carreyesque 1 in 1,000 chance to win it all.
