South Asian Football League (SAFL) – POWER RANKINGS – Week 7

AK
What does it take to become the perfect team? AK provides a blueprint. But are they really a perfect team despite their perfect record? In our view, it takes more than a pristine record to be qualitatively great. AK has a prefect 6-0 record but their performance so far suggests that they are closer to a 4.5 win team. They’ve blown teams out, but they’ve also won multiple close games that could’ve swung the other way. Their defense is worse than prior seasons. Their offense while still great is not producing at their established level of play.

PRIME TIME

PrimeTime’s record on the other hand is almost exactly as it should be per their points scored and allowed generating 4.09 expected wins. PrimeTime is ranked #2 again this week despite its loss to the Gators because they still have the #1 scoring defense, a major factor in our rankings model. Their offense is closer to the median team, while the Gators defense lags towards the bottom third of teams. The PT defense rankings might finally drop from #1 if they play as bad as they have historically against the Browns

GATORS

The Gators sport an impressive 5-1 record. But they have outperformed their expected wins by 0.86 wins suggesting they “should” be 4-2. The Gators defense, while reputable, is actually among the worst in the league, coming in at #7 overall in defensive points. The Gators’ secret to success has been the transformation on offense, which is just 4 points away from being the #1 offense in the league. If they keep winning, our rankings model will adjust accordingly. Something tells us this is not where they’ll end up at season’s end.

BROWNS

The Browns have underperformed their wins expectancy by 0.32 wins suggesting this is a better team than their record indicates. The Browns are unsurprising #1 on offense. They are however ranked a respectable #6 on defense. If they can sustain this output, they will rightfully be considered a favorite to win it all, if not the singular favorite. Historically, the Browns have needed their defense just to play average to win it all. The Browns have a huge test this week against the revamped PrimeTime who know the Browns more intimately than all other teams and will try to exploit their weaknesses.

COBRA KAI

Cobra Kai has played better than anyone could’ve imagined. Our model likes them as well. They have been the second most unlucky team, underperforming their expected wins by 0.51 wins. That’s a significant figure. But like in life, the narrative is different for everyone. Cobra Kai started with nothing a year ago and they have skillfully put together a team that can beat anyone. Our concern is attendance. While Cobra Kai didn’t have enough bodies last year, this year they are losing bodies left and right. We certainly hope Cobra Kai gets healthy enough for the playoffs as this is a dangerous team that can wreak havoc in the tournament.

BANDITS

The Bandits have scored 129 Points and they have given up 130 points. It’s very hard to get more even than that. The expected wins model thinks they should have 3 wins. And they have 3 wins. If we look at the seasonal trend though, it’s not going in a favorable direction. This is a team that has lost 3 in a row. While they lost to the Browns on a last-second play, they have been giving up big plays and big points, two things you don’t associate with the Bandits. They play the red hot Gators this week. This will be a pivotal game for them and may foreshadow how the season plays out for them. If they win, they are among the better teams. If they lose, they may spiral out of control and possibly not win another game.

THE ELITES

The Elites look like they are turning the corner. They have now won two in a row in convincing fashion. They have underperformed by 0.35 wins based on their points scored and points allowed, suggesting things are going to get better. It may be that team management has had enough of the constant state of flux on the team and streamlined roles and responsibilities. Whatever it is, it’s working. We don’t think there is anyone associated with SAFL that does not want to see this collection of gentlemen do well. They have on deck who by far are the unluckiest team in the league. So expect to see a slobber knocker.

SAVAGES

The Savages have one win which is a whopping 1.17 wins below their expected wins. They have shown tremendous grit by hanging in there in every game. They almost pulled the upset of the year against the champs. The Savages are incrementally improving. They have a strong-armed QB and multiple athletes on their roster. With full health, this team can be dangerous. They have a date with suddenly explosive Elites. The Savages overall have a poor defense. Will they able to slow the Elites down. On the other hand, the Savages have potential on offense to score on every drive. It’ll be squarely on the Savages to slow it down and consistently execute.

THUNDER

The Thunder pulled off the upset of the week. They recorded their first victory of the season with a gutsy performance. Now, in a vacuum, our model doesn’t rate them too highly, observing that they have outperformed their expected wins by 0.45 wins. But looking at trends, we see a team more cohesive and structured. We think that has to do with having stability at the QB position, allowing their top athletes to mete out punishment as WRs. The Thunder has AK on the deck which poses a serious test. We think they can win the game outright but only if they play confidently. Playing confidently is expecting a certain outcome based on your talents and execution. Playing hoping things will go well is not the right approach. Let’s see what the Thunder have learned.

RENEGADES

The Renegades are qualitatively the opposite of the best team so far this season. They have outperformed their expected win by 0.25 wins. They have the worst defense. They have the second-worst scoring offense. They have a talented roster. But where is everyone? We always notice just 7 or 8 showing up at each game. They have one of the best QBs in the league. They have a veteran roster yet those elements haven’t translated into wins. They play hobbled Cobra Kai team next. Can they take advantage? The Renegades have too much going for them to be playing like more than halfway into the season. We are confident in management’s ability to turn this around.